Today we update Tesla’s sales data in the US. It is not easy to collect new energy vehicle data in the United States, but it can be divided into two parts, one is California data (analogous to domestic purchase-restricted cities), and the other is data for the entire US market. Look at Tesla's work in key areas and penetration in two aspects.

PART 1: Tesla's sales in California

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Judging from the overall sales of new energy vehicles in California, this year's sales of BEV and HEV models are good, while the market share of PHEV models is gradually decreasing due to insufficient supply in the United States, showing the following characteristics:

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P1 Current sales and market share of the three types of BEV, PHEV and HEV in California

Let’s first look at Tesla’s quarterly deliveries in California. The first three quarters of 2020 were 23,250, 9,833, and 17,017. Q2 was affected by the COVID-19 and entered a historic low, and Q3 began to gradually recover.

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P2 Tesla's quarterly deliveries in California

From the perspective of Tesla's own product sequence, the proportion of Model 3 has begun to further decline. If we break down this quarterly delivery, we can see the following result:

1) The demand for Model 3 has decreased. This is a continuous process. After the demand dropped to a low of 6,000 units last month, Q3 recovered somewhat but only rebounded to 6,698 units;

2) The demand for Model Y is rising rapidly, Q3's volume reached 7263 units, and it has surpassed Model 3 in Q3 to become Tesla's sales pillar;

3) Model S and Model X are currently driven by the two low-priced cars, and the overall sales volume is maintained at around 1,000-1,500 units delivered quarterly, and it will be hoped that it will only be pulled up until the replacement.

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P3 The structure of Tesla's sales in California

At present, the competitive supply in the US pure electric vehicle market is very inadequate. The sales of GM Bolt and the sales of Prius replaced by Tesla are shown below. Since Q4 of 2019, the demand for BMW i3 has basically returned to zero. However, the misplaced Bolt BEV can leave a piece of land, and Model 3 also eats up part of the demand for Model S/X. In the short term, BMW's iX3 will not be sold in the United States. Therefore, the sales of other electric vehicles in the US market will mainly focus on the BEV of Mustang and BEV of Cadillac.

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P4 Tesla's registrations in California in the past 4 years

Compared with other competitors, Tesla's market share has reached its peak in several market segments. Judging from the product sequence, Tesla has indeed reached the time when it needs to build a pure electric pickup to open up a larger market in the United States.

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P5 Electric Vehicles and Tesla Market Data in California

At present, Tesla's sales in California have surpassed the Volkswagen Group's luxury cars (Audi+Porsche), and also surpassed BMW, basically the same as Mercedes-Benz. This level of growth is amazing.

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P6 Tesla's sales comparison in California and several luxury car brands

PART 2: Tesla's data in the entire US market

According to Teslike's estimation, Q4 will usher in a big rebound in the United States. Tesla's quarterly delivery in the United States may reach 83,000 units. If calculated based on this data, Tesla's delivery in the US market this year will be 211.8 thousand. Taiwan (180,000 units in 2018, nearly 186,600 units in 2019), a large part of this is the volume of Model Y cars. If the data is split this year, the demand for Model S+Model X in the US market is 33,000 units, Model 3 is 94,100 units, Model Y is 83,800 units, and Model Y effectively splits Model 3.

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P7 Tesla's volume in the U.S. and cumulative in North America in 2020

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P8 2012-2020 Tesla U.S. volume and energy distribution

I think the California market can objectively reflect Tesla’s competitiveness. At present, Tesla is in a stable development period without a particularly good subsidy policy in the United States. Therefore, a rapid increase in market share in China and Europe has become The main goal, of course, Model Y is bound to bring diversion problems to its own models.


Post time: Feb-05-2021